What Next in Darfur? (December 2007)

The situation in Darfur continues to worsen

The situation in Darfur has gone from bad to worse since the Darfur Peace Agreement was signed in May 2006. For example:

• Murder, rape, bombings, forced displacement, and ethnic cleansing continue to occur throughout Darfur, and across Sudan’s borders in Chad and the Central African Republic.

• Despite promises to the contrary, the Sudanese government of President Omar al-Bashir has continued to obstruct international efforts – such as the UNAMID peacekeeping mission authorized by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1769 – to end the conflict and provide security and protection for the Darfuri people. Sudan’s National Congress Party instead continues to pursue a military solution in Darfur.

• Displacement is on the rise. More than 2 million Darfuris have been dislocated because of the violence, including an estimated 500,000 in the last 15 months, and are living in crowded camps in Darfur, eastern Chad, and the Central African Republic. Humanitarian workers who are providing housing, food, water and medical treatment continue to be targeted by both government-sponsored militias, rebel groups and common criminals.

• The two major rebel factions that did not sign the Darfur Peace Agreement have fractured into many, smaller groups, which has created a much more complicated political situation and placed additional strain upon the peace process being led by the UN and AU.

• Reports indicate that as many as 30,000 non-Darfurians (including citizens from Chad and Niger) belonging to self-described “Arab” tribes known in Darfur to support the Janjaweed militias have been resettled into abandoned Darfuri villages by the Sudanese government.
  

Recent international diplomatic efforts have been disappointing

Over the summer, in response to growing activism around the world and in an effort to restart a viable peace process, the United Nations and many countries increased their public diplomacy on Darfur. Recent actions include:

• The UN Security Council unanimously approved Resolution 1769 on July 31, which authorizes the recruitment and deployment of a 26,000-strong hybrid United Nations – African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur. However, several deadlines have been missed to facilitate both the generation and deployment of UNAMID. It is certain that the deployment of UNAMID will be delayed, and possible that it will never be fully deployed in Sudan as mandated in Resolution 1769.

• Despite heightened rhetoric during the UN General Assembly, there remains a lack of political will among leading UN member states to fully support UNAMID or pressure the Sudanese government to fully implement Resolution 1769.

• China, which has the most extensive political, military and economic relations with Sudan, has not brought the full weight of diplomatic pressure it has available against the Sudanese government, and in fact now appears to be easing up on Khartoum. This is retarding any progress in Khartoum’s behavior.

• Darfur has fallen as a Washington priority. The administration is not engaging in full-time and persistent diplomacy.

Serious challenges remain ahead

The crisis in Darfur remains dire, and requires a multi-dimensional approach. The international community must address four simultaneous challenges in Darfur:

• Peacekeeping: There is now a risk that UNAMID, if ever fully deployed, will be a weak and ineffective entity unable to realize its mandate. UN member states have not committed the personnel, heavy equipment, logistics and funding necessary for UNAMID to succeed. Every deadline has been missed to date.

• Humanitarian Relief: The international community needs to support the humanitarian needs of 2.5 million Darfuri IDPs at a cost of at least $700 million next year. There must be continued pressure on the Sudanese government to stop obstructing relief efforts. The threat of an increase in mortality rates among camp dwellers, resulting from deteriorating health and security conditions and a lack of international support, are a ticking time bomb.

• Peacemaking: The Darfur peacekeeping process is stalled, and there is no consensus or vision on what an agreement will include. The UN, AU and their member nations must press the Sudanese government and rebel leaders to establish and abide by a cease-fire and begin a just and inclusive peace process that will provide an ultimate political framework for peace in Darfur. The international community must reengage full participation of rebel leaders in preliminary talks aimed at consolidating a united rebel negotiating position. Anything less than a fully coordinated peace process runs the risk of exacerbating the conflict rather than ending it.

• Development: The international community, and especially wealthy nations such at the U.S., must plan and provide resources for programs to vastly improve economic and physical infrastructure in Darfur in order to ensure that a peaceful Darfur, when achieved, is sustainable. This should begin with the resumption of the Darfur Joint Assessment Mission which has previously been launched and then interrupted due to security concerns.

The lack of consequences to Sudan is undermining progress on the ground. The UN, European Union, and individual countries have been unwilling to put in place direct, multilateral punitive economic and diplomatic consequences for any party that undermines the deployment of the peacekeeping force, advancement of peace talks, or which hinders civilian humanitarian efforts. The U.S. has enacted sanctions on Sudan, but unilateral sanctions alone have not been enough to compel Sudan’s cooperation. Other countries and multilateral institutions must agree to impose them as well if the Sudanese government, or rebel leaders, obstructs efforts to end the genocide in Darfur.

The UN, AU, and international community must give equal diplomatic priority to both the peacekeeping track – full deployment of UNAMID – and advancement of a just and inclusive peace process to arrive at a permanent solution.